Qingnong Commercial Bank (002958) 19-year performance bulletin review: revenue maintained high growth and strong provisioning
Event: On January 20, Qingnong Commercial Bank released the 2019 performance report with revenue of 87.3 billion, a year-on-year increase of +17.0% (-5.7 pct); net profit attributable to mother 28.3 billion, a year-on-year increase of +16.8% (+4.5 pct).ROE is 12.39% (-47BP), non-performing rate 1.46% (-11BP), provision coverage rate is 310.2% (+20.2 pct).  The revenue growth rate showed a trend, and the provision 杭州桑拿网 for accrual increased.19 years of operating income increased by 17 each year.0%, the growth rate is earlier than the end of 18 years, a slight decrease from the 19Q3; net profit attributable to mothers increased at a longer rate of 16.8%, up 1BP from 19Q3.Because other operating expenses are relatively rigid and the changes are small, the provisioning rate changes the rolling difference between the operating income and operating profit growth.0 pct, and 19Q3 single quarter rolling difference is only 3.7 pct, obviously in 19Q4 increased provisions for accrual.  ROE decreased slightly.The ROE at the end of 19 was 12.4%, a previous decline of 47BP, initially due to the provision of higher speed in Q4, dragging down net profit performance, ROE in 1H19 exceeded 53BP, and ROE in 19Q3 exceeded 73BP.It can be seen that provisions have 武汉夜生活网 been vigorously made throughout the year. Although ROE has performed poorly recently, it has the potential to improve in the future.The annual growth rate of total profit and net profit differ greatly, reaching 13 in 19Q3.1pct (only 4 at the end of 18 years.7 pct), the rolling difference between the two has reduced the contribution of factor factors, or has produced tax exemption effects due to the purchase of local debt or the increase of public funds.  The quality of assets has improved markedly and risks have been cleared.Poor metabolism at the end of 19 years.46%, a sharp drop of 11BP previously, a slight increase from 19Q3; provision coverage reached 310.2%, an increase of 20 pct earlier, still maintaining an upward trend; the loan-to-loan ratio has been slow for a long time since 18, and 4 at the end of 19 years.53%, up 10BP from the previous month, slightly strengthened.  Earnings forecast and estimation: Revenue growth has steadily increased and asset quality has improved significantly.It is expected that the net profit growth rate in 20/21 will be 16.9%, 17.2%, the current reasonable value is 1.44 times 20-year PB, giving a “neutral” rating.  Risk reminders: weak economic stability; small banks’ risk resistance ability is poor; demand is insufficient.